According to the June data, the social democratic Harmony Center, led by Riga mayor Nils Usakovs, would attract 18.1% of the vote followed by the centre-right Unity party of Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma on 16.4%.
Third place would be taken by the populist Greens' and Farmers' Union on 9.9% with the right-wing National Alliance on 6.1%.
Despite the appearance of numerous other smaller parties since the last elections, none of them would be able to cross the 5% threshold that would entitle them to seats in parliament, the data suggests.
If accurate, the next Saeima would most likely resemble the existing one with the three parties of the existing coalition (following the absorption of the Reform Party into Unity's ranks) teaming up again to deny Harmony Center a role in government.