Latest party ratings see New Unity, National Alliance gathering momentum in Latvia

With Saeima elections looming ever closer on October 1 and no shortage of action on the international and domestic political scenes, there are some new trends revealed in the latest monthly poll produced for Latvian Television by the SKDS pollster.

Supporters of coalition parties are currently more motivated to vote than potential voters of opposition parties with New Unity (JV) and the National Alliance (NA) projected to win most seats if Saeima elections took place tomorrow. 

That projection is subtly different from the picture regarding overall support, in which New Unity takes first place with 9.8% support, the opposition Greens and Farmers Alliance (ZZS) takes second spot on 8%, the National Alliance is in third with 7.8% support and the opposition Harmony party is in fourth spot on 6.8%, having seen its support nosedive in recent months. 

However, the numer of floating voters remains high with 29.6% of respondents indicating that they do not know who to vote for and a further 11.3% saying that they will not participate in the Saeima elections at all. 

To win seats in Saeima a political party needs to attract at least 5% of ballots cast. The model used by SKDS projects that seven parties would make it across the threshold, with the four above-mentioned parties joined by coalition party Development/For!, the Progressives (not currently represented), and the populist Latvia First party just squeaking in, too.

If the projection is accurate, the next Latvian coalition could look substantially similar to the current one, albeit with the positions of New Unity and the National Alliance considerably enhanced. The other current coalition party, the Conservatives, is running just below the 5% threshold so as things stand it would not win any seats. 

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