While Latvia is reaching ever-new Covid-19 morbidity records during the lockdown, the overall trend is positive if it is assessed in the longer term rather than in each given day, according to Disease Prevention and Control Center's epidemiologist Jurijs Perevoščikovs.
"One-day data are not statistically reliable. They can have big fluctuations. More time intervals should be viewed. Typically, seven days give operational information. And operational information at the moment shows that the increase in the disease is slowing down.
"This is due to some extent to the effects of the restrictive measures and not only to the fact that there are school holidays. The incidence usually decreases after two to three weeks, but the number of hospitalizations and deaths is decreasing even more slowly. It will continue for a while because those who got sick can get to the hospital in a week, and two weeks later, unfortunately, death may also occur,” the epidemiologist said.
Perevoščikovs said mortality records are attributable to the increased incidence of hospitalizations. However, the situation should stabilize in the coming weeks. This was also confirmed by Professor Ģirts Briģis, Head of the Public Health and Epidemiology Department of Riga Stradiņš University.
“The week is the smallest [noteworthy time period], but to judge anything about trends, at least another week needs to be waited for,” Briģis said.
Professor Briģis pointed out that whether morbidity will diminish during restriction time is closely linked to public behavior.
"How much the public complies with the recommendations. Even when there are bans, as we know, it doesn't always work. And that means controlling, punishing. [..] If we value the effectiveness of lockdown from international experience, then we see a lot of positive examples, where lockdown has had an effect and the morbidity has abated. In other countries, and here you can mention the experience of the spring of Latvia, that there was no such good effect of the restrictions,” Briģis said.
