The data on 'Urban-rural Europe' at regional level shows that between 2023 and 2051, Latgale's population is expected to fall by 41%, Vidzeme's by 39%, Kurzeme's by 36%, and Zemgale's by 34%. Less affected is the Pierīga region which includes the capital and its surrounding area, which can expect to see an 18% population drop during the same period.
Overall projected population change, by urban-rural typology, 1 January 2023 to 1 January 2051 (by NUTS 3 regions). Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjangrp3) and (proj_19rp3)
Between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051, the EU’s population is projected to fall by 1.8% overall to 440.5 million inhabitants.
The population of predominantly urban regions in the EU is projected to continue growing for most of the period under consideration (although the rate of change will slow and the number of inhabitants is projected to fall from 2047 onwards).
By contrast, the latest projections suggest that the population living in intermediate regions and predominantly rural regions of the EU will fall every year between 2023 and 2050.
The Baltic states are set for some of the EU's sharpest population contractions with Eurostat saying:
"The number of inhabitants living in predominantly rural regions is projected to fall at its most rapid pace across Baltic and eastern EU countries – with the rural populations of Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania projected to decline by more than 8.0‰ per year on average."
Please note the use of ‰ instead of % when talking about annual figures.
"The population of intermediate regions is projected to fall in 17 out of 26 EU countries which have such regions – falls of more than 10.0‰ per year are projected in all 3 Baltic countries. The population of predominantly urban regions is projected to fall in 9 Baltic, eastern and southern EU countries."
The only EU countries where the number of inhabitants living in the capital city metropolitan region is projected to fall are Croatia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia and Greece.
You can explore the data for yourself here.
