UN report predicts 40% population decline this century

With Latvia preparing to celebrate its centenary next year, much attention is also focusing on the next 100 years. But according to latest estimates from the United Nations, Latvia in 2100 will have a population 40% smaller than it does today.

On 21 June, the UN's Population Division released the twenty-fifth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections, which have been prepared since 1951 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.

The main results, presented in a series of Excel files displaying key demographic indicators for each development group, income group, region, sub-region and country for selected periods or dates within 1950-2100, are all available online, and accompanied by other materials as well.




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"Fifty-one countries or areas are projected to undergo a reduction in population size between 2017 and 2050. For ten countries or areas, populations are expected to decrease by more than 15 per cent by 2050: Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine and the United States Virgin Islands," says the report

According to the accompanying data, it is predicted that 2017's population of 1.95 million will decline to 1.74 million in 2030, 1.51 million in 2050 and just 1.14 million in 2100.

However the figures also predict that fertility (live births per woman) in Latvia will increase from around 1.5 today to 1.8 by the end of the century.

There will also be a remarkable rise in life expectancy, from 74 years today to 85 years in 2100. 

"World Pop. Prospects" presented on Wednesday, 21/06 11h #UNPopulation #GlobalGoals #SDG Press conf Webcast live : https://t.co/O2pRIwh9IF pic.twitter.com/U0Z0vH2f6e

— UNECE (@UNECE) June 21, 2017


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