September is expected to be around 3.5 degrees warmer than the norm (the 1991-2020 average). Last year, the first month of autumn was also 3.5 degrees warmer than normal, and with a monthly average temperature of 15.8 degrees, last September became the warmest in the history of Latvian meteorological observations.
The following autumn and winter months are forecast to be one or two degrees warmer than normal. After a rather dry September, precipitation will increase, especially along the coast, where warm sea water will increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall.
The current dry and summery warm weather is due to a large anticyclone in Russia.
Forecasts suggest that the weather in the coming months will be mainly determined by Atlantic cyclones, which will bring warm and moist air from the ocean to northern Europe.
The reliability of long-term forecasts, however, is low. Average monthly or seasonal temperatures are predicted, but individual cold and heat waves cannot be predicted so far in advance.
According to the Latvian Center for Environment, Geology and Meteorology, only January has been colder than usual this year, while the average temperatures of the other months have been above normal.
If the remaining months of the year are warm, the average temperature in 2024 is expected to be similar to 2020, when the record for the warmest year was set.
