Latvian security service assesses Russian economy

The Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), one of Latvia's three security services, has put on its economist's hat and produced an analysis of the current state of the Russian economy.

The analysis looks at the Russia economy with particular reference to its relationship with the war unleashed by Russia in Ukraine, how long the Russian economy can sustain the conflict and how much it will cost.

In its conclusions, SAB predicts:

"In the long term, Russia is expected to invest significant funds in maintaining its economy, domestic industry development and military capabilities. However, a disconnect exists between Russia's long-term goals and the current reality.

"While the government desires structural economic reforms to achieve higher technological production and economic sovereignty, in the near future it is unlikely to be unattainable due to rising public sector budget demands, defense spending, and social costs. It is more probable that the reverse trend may be observed, where Russia's economy could experience primitivization in order to support the growing military expenditure, even though this results in losses rather than tangible economic value."

The full analysis is available here.

The Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) is one of the three Latvian Security and Intelligence Services alogside the State Security Service (VDD) and Defence Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD).

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