Poll says six parties can make it into Latvian parliament a year before election

Take note – story published 6 years ago

These are the party ratings less than a year before the October 6, 2018 parliamentary election in Latvia.

If the election were held this October, six parties would make it into the parliament, according to an SKDS survey ordered by LTV. 

The representative survey, carried out in October, sees Harmony in the lead with 22.5% of the electorate saying they would vote for them. Second is the Greens and Farmers Union with 13.1% of the electorate while the National Alliance ranks third with 9.5%.

The New Conservative Party would receive 3.9% of the votes and Unity, which was in power just a year ago, would receive a meager 3.5%. The Regional Alliance would receive 3.4% and The Movement For! would receive 1.2% of the vote.

A total six parties would make it into the parliament if the undecided vote share would be proportionally split among the remaining parties. A total 23.5% of the respondents said they did not yet know who they'd vote for but 13.8% wouldn't vote at all.

If the undecided votes were split evenly, Harmony would get a whopping 35.8% of the vote, the Greens and Farmers Union would get 20.9%, the National Alliance - 15.2%, The New Conservative Party - 6.3%, Unity - 5.6% and Regional Alliance - 5.4%. 

National Alliance saw its ratings grow by 1.9%, reaching its highest result within a year, while Harmony's rating grew 2.3%. Greens and Farmers Union saw its rating improve by 1.5%.

Rating dynamics, September (left) vs. October (right).

Legend: Saskaņa - Harmony, ZZS - Greens/Farmers, NA - National Alliance, JKP - New Conservative Party, Vienotība - Unity, LRA - Regional Alliance, NSL - Latvia from the Heart, KPVL - Who Owns the State? 

"It seems there are only three parties that can pride themselves over very great support - it's Harmony and the National Alliance, which have stable support and electorate, as well as the Greens and Farmers Union, which we can count among the group, with the caveat that they're currently at power... they have to answer to the public as to what's happening in the state, and how," says Arnis Kaktiņš, head of the SKDS pollster. 

Meanwhile politics expert Ivars Ījabs said that voters that were loyal to Unity have split up and absorbed by a number of political powers, with part of their vote going to the National Alliance and part to the Greens and Farmers Union.

"The politicians will start looking at what to do with these ratings. They'll start talking about uniting their forces. But you cannot be the first one to ask for unity, as it's a sign of weakness. You have to be the one who's spoken to," Ījabs said.

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