"This year, all Baltic countries have faced a large drop in exports. In the second quarter, when the economies took the largest hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, exports decreased the most in Estonia. However, the decline in exports was the sharpest in a decade in all Baltic countries. The drop in exports of services was considerably larger than that of goods. At constant prices, exports of goods decreased by 10% in Estonia, 6% in Latvia, and 8% in Lithuania year on year (yoy), whereas exports of services dropped by 35%, 30%, and 19%, respectively. The sharp decline in exports of services came primarily from travel and transportation. In Estonia, travel services contributed 61% to the drop in exports of services in nominal terms. In Latvia, 78% of the decline was explained by air transport and tourism, and, in Lithuania, 42% of the plunge was concentrated in transportation services," said Swedbank.
However, there are some signs of recovery now evident.
"Exports from all the Baltic countries have risen from the trough of April and May. Goods rebounded considerably faster than services in Estonia and Latvia, whereas, in Lithuania, the decline of both export categories has lessened compared to the trough. The drop in export prices, especially prices of mineral products, has had a considerable negative impact on export turnover. Export-import ratios and net exports have increased, as imports have dropped more than exports, especially in Lithuania; this has softened the decline in GDP. Despite the recent contraction of exports, Baltic countries have gained market shares of their exported goods in the EU. However, by trade partners, the result is mixed," the bank said.
The full Swedbank report is available to read online.