Political scientist predicts future four-party coalition for Latvia

The formation of a five-party coalition is unlikely, given the National Alliance's clear refusal to cooperate with the Progressives, so the next government will most likely be formed by four parties, namely New Unity, the Greens and Farmers Union (ZZS), the Progressives and the United List, professor of the University of Latvia Juris Rozenvalds predicted on Latvian Television, August 23.

"If we are talking about real options, then it could be a coalition of four parties or at least a coalition of three and a half parties, because by the fourth I mean the United List or at least part of the United List, said the political scientist.

According to Rozenvalds, the strict stance of the National Alliance against the "Progressives" leaves no room for maneuver. But a three party coalition of New Unity, the Progressives and ZZS would hold just 52 votes in Saeima – a narrow and vulnerable majority.

Also, the vote of independent MP Olegs Burovs could potentially be added to the government coalition. "He could also support the government in a narrow composition," added the political scientist.

"A coalition supported by 53 or 52 votes is not really viable, because each partner is clearly aware that they can slow everything down. The experience of the previous government also shows that [the government] does not work that way," explained Rozenvalds.

"It would be a reasonable step to try to achieve a four-party coalition. Everything points to the fact that it could succeed, although it is difficult to predict in Latvia, because Latvia is a wonderland in this sense, but everything points to the fact that there will be a four-party coalition," he predicted.

According to Rozenvalds, the formation of the government could take place relatively smoothly and not drag on for months as it often has in the past, because all partners are aware of the seriousness of the situation with the 2024 budget still sitting in the government's in-tray.

Wednesday will see President Edgars Rinkēvičs hosting the five above-mentioned parties for roundtable talks at Rīga Castle.

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