The Latvian Security Barometer is a short quarterly overview of the most important international and domestic defense and security developments from the Latvian point of view. It is published by the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga (CGSR) in both English and Latvian. This is the first one, but it is intended to be a regular quarterly publication.
The think-tank thinks that "The idea that Poland and the Baltic States 'will be next' [after Ukraine] is gaining traction" in the West, but sees such reasoning as problematic.
"Even after an unlikely Russian victory in Ukraine, a number of years would be needed for Russia to reconstitute forces for an attack against Poland and the Baltic States. Nevertheless, this information narrative causes uncertainty, can affect inward investment with consequent economic effects and is damaging to deterrence," it says.
Speaking at length to LSM's Latvian-language service, the CGSR's Jānis Kažociņš said the 'Baltics next' narrative was employed in several different ways.
"It's a narrative that, in a way, is beneficial not only for Russia to try to influence the Baltic states, but also in a way for Ukraine, because it means that Ukraine can rely more on the support of Poland and the Baltic states, because if we [Ukraine] fall, you will be next. That's why it sometimes appears in the expressions of Ukrainian politicians," said Kažociņš.
In conclusion, the Barometer judges that "A small but perceptible reduction in Latvia’s security could be detected in the first quarter of 2024."
The Barometer also provides brief summaries of various salient points in Latvia's security landscape, and can be read and downloaded here or from the attachment to this story. If you find it interesting you might also like to read this recent report from the Constitution Protection Bureau, as previously reported by LSM.
