Latvian security service ponders Putin's prospects

The Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), one of three Latvian security services, made a foray into geopolitical forecasting November 24 with a new analysis available in both English and Latvian.

Titled The stability of Putin’s regime. Are changes possible?, the analysis does not come with any author's name attached and does not have footnotes or other attributive sources to back up its various assertions and predictions.

"Since February of this year, various assumptions and versions of possible political changes in the Russian power system have been increasingly appearing in mass media, predicting the loss of power of Russian President Vladimir Putin and even Russia’s economic and regional collapse. The Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) offers its perspective on these assumptions in this article," it begins.

In answer to the fundamental question posed in the title of the analysis, SAB comes down cautiously on the side of 'No', saying: "SAB believes that a revolution is rather unlikely in the current situation. The existing competition and discord between groups, which is associated with political opportunism, occurs within the framework of the established system but does not threaten the existence of the strategic political course or system... Currently, the elites’ benefit calculations makes rebellion against the regime too risky to justify."

"In general, a change of power in Russia, with Putin losing his position due to illness or a revolution, is unlikely at the moment. The Russian elite has partially gathered around Putin as the guarantor of the current system," SAB says.

You can read the whole thing here: https://www.sab.gov.lv/?a=s&id=72&jid=117. Back in October, SAB offered a view on Belarus, too: https://www.sab.gov.lv/?a=s&id=72&jid=115.

The Constitution Protection Bureau is one of three state security services, the other being the State Security Service (VDD) and the Defense Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD). The main tasks of SAB include intelligence, counter-intelligence and protection of official secrets. SAB also ensures protection of NATO and EU classified information in public institutions engaged in work with such information.

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